Spring Pheromone Trap Forecast

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Spring Pheromone Trap Forecast

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Picture: SPB Trap

Since 1995, the Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services Florida Forest Service (FFS) has participated in an annual Southern Pine Beetle (Dendroctonus frontalis, or SPB) spring trapping survey. This survey monitors numbers of adult SPBs and their clerid predators captured in pheromone-baited flight traps during the SPB primary spring dispersal phase. The results are used as an early-season prediction of SPB population trends and activity levels, allowing forest managers to identify areas of potential SPB activity in advance of aerial detection flights. The survey also provides data for monitoring SPB population levels from year to year. The survey technique and accompanying prediction model were developed by Dr. Ron Billings at the Texas Forest Service, have been employed throughout the Southeast since 1986, and have proven to be 75-85% accurate in predicting SPB activity at the county level for a given year. The Florida survey successfully predicted outbreak levels for several counties in 2001 as well as statewide low levels of activity from 2003 through 2014.

Summary of Florida SPB Pheromone Trap Surveys, Predictions, and Infestations: 1995-2016

Summary of Florida SPB Pheromone Trap Surveys, Predictions, and Infestations

Year

No. of Counties Trapped

SPB/Trap/ Day

 % SPB

Prediction Trend/Level

No. of Infestations

1995

10

21.0

66

Increasing/Moderate

718

1996

19

0.3

34

Declining/Low

61

1997

19

0.5

22

Static/Low

863

1998

19

7.2

59

Increasing/Low

34

1999

20

1.4

38

Declining/Low

220

2000

21

13.2

62

Increasing/Moderate

1,172

2001

23

45.0

69

Increasing/High

 2,892

2002

26

47.0

80

Increasing/High

650

2003

27

2.0

45

Declining/Low

2

2004

27

0.6

19

Static/Low

16

2005

26

4.8

36

Static/Low

7

2006

25

1.0

15

Static/Low

3

2007

26

0.4

25

Static/Low

46

2008

26

0.4

27

Static/Low

?

2009

26

0.7

21

Static/Low

15

2010

26

0.2

25

Static/Low

1

2011

26

0.2

25

Static/Low

2

2012

26

0.7

21

Static/Low

8

2013

25

0.4

41

Static/Low

12

2014

26

0.7

34

Static/Low

17

2015

26

0.6

31

Static/Low

21

2016

26

0.8

55

Static/Low

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